Hindsight Bias

Cognitive BiasDecision MakingLearning

Hindsight Bias is the tendency to believe, after an event has occurred, that the outcome was predictable all along.

Introduction

Hindsight Bias is the tendency to believe, after an event has occurred, that the outcome was predictable all along.

Core Concepts

  1. Overconfidence: Misjudging past knowledge of future events.
  2. Distorted Learning: Reducing the ability to learn from unexpected outcomes.
  3. Awareness: Recognizing the bias helps maintain objectivity.

Applications

  • Risk assessment to avoid underestimating uncertainty.
  • Business strategy to learn from failures without bias.

Related Resources

  • Book: "The Black Swan" by Nassim Nicholas Taleb.
  • Tools: Post-mortem analysis frameworks.

Related Topics

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