The Availability Cascade describes how repeated exposure to an idea amplifies its perceived truth and importance.
The Availability Heuristic describes the tendency to rely on readily available information when making decisions.
Bayesian Reasoning updates probabilities based on new evidence using Bayes' Theorem.
Bayesian Thinking uses probability to update beliefs based on new evidence, emphasizing continuous learning.
The Bystander Effect refers to the phenomenon where individuals are less likely to help in emergencies when others are present.
The Circle of Competence emphasizes focusing decisions and actions within areas of expertise while avoiding areas of ignorance.
The Cobra Effect describes unintended negative consequences of well-intentioned policies or incentives.
Compounding is the process where the value of an investment grows exponentially over time as returns generate further returns.
Confirmation Bias is the tendency to favor information that confirms existing beliefs while ignoring contradictory evidence.
Creative Destruction describes the process by which innovation replaces outdated industries, driving economic progress.
The Dunning-Kruger Effect describes how individuals with low expertise overestimate their competence, while experts may underestimate theirs.
Feedback Loops describe cyclical cause-and-effect relationships in systems, reinforcing or balancing behaviors.
First Principles Thinking involves breaking down complex problems into fundamental truths and reasoning from the ground up.
The Framing Effect occurs when the presentation of information influences decisions and judgments.
Game Theory studies strategic interactions where the outcome depends on the decisions of multiple players.
Hanlon’s Razor advises against attributing to malice what can be explained by ignorance or incompetence.
Hindsight Bias is the tendency to believe, after an event has occurred, that the outcome was predictable all along.
Hyperbolic Discounting explains why people prefer smaller, immediate rewards over larger, delayed ones.
Incentive-Caused Bias occurs when individuals are influenced by their incentives, leading to biased decisions or actions.
Incentives are rewards or penalties that influence behavior and decision-making.
Inversion Thinking involves approaching problems by imagining the opposite outcome and reasoning backward to prevent it.
The Law of Diminishing Returns states that adding more resources to a process eventually results in lower incremental output.
The Law of Large Numbers states that as a sample size increases, its average becomes closer to the population mean.
The Lindy Effect suggests that the longer something has existed, the longer it is likely to persist.
Marginal Utility measures the additional satisfaction gained from consuming one more unit of a good or service.
Mean Reversion is the tendency for values to return to their historical average over time.
Mental Models are frameworks or lenses through which individuals view and understand the world.
Nash Equilibrium occurs when players in a game choose strategies that no one benefits from changing unilaterally.
Network Effects occur when the value of a product or service increases as more people use it.
Occam’s Razor suggests that the simplest explanation with the fewest assumptions is usually the correct one.
The OODA Loop (Observe, Orient, Decide, Act) is a decision-making framework emphasizing speed and adaptability.
Opportunity Cost represents the value of the next best alternative that must be forgone to pursue a particular action.
The Pareto Principle, or the 80/20 rule, states that 80% of outcomes result from 20% of causes.
Pavlovian Conditioning, or classical conditioning, involves learning through associations between stimuli and responses.
The Prisoner's Dilemma illustrates how two individuals acting in their own self-interest can lead to suboptimal outcomes for both.
Reciprocity is the social norm where people feel obligated to return favors or acts of kindness.
Second-Order Thinking focuses on anticipating the long-term consequences of decisions and understanding their ripple effects.
Social Proof describes the tendency to conform to the actions of others when making decisions, especially in uncertain situations.
The Sunk Cost Fallacy is the tendency to continue investing in a failing endeavor because of previously invested resources.
Survivorship Bias occurs when analysis focuses only on successful outcomes, ignoring failures.
This model reminds us that representations (maps) are abstractions and not the reality they represent.
The Tragedy of the Commons explains how individuals acting in their self-interest can deplete shared resources.
Anchoring Bias describes the tendency to rely too heavily on the first piece of information (the anchor) when making decisions.
Authority Bias refers to the tendency to overvalue the opinions or instructions of perceived authority figures.
The halo effect is a cognitive bias...